In many ways, the story of Scientology is similar to another cult which misappropriated the cachet of "Science" in its name: "Christian Science" (which is neither Christian nor scientific). When it was founded by Mary Baker Eddy in 1879, its message of faith healing was powerful, and it became a large organization with hundreds of thousands of members. But today it is virtually extinct, with lots of property ("Christian Science Reading Rooms") but almost no one occupying their rooms. Estimates made in 2009 suggested that there were fewer than 50,000 remaining members, worldwide. At a plausible attrition rate of 4000 lost members per year (extrapolating from declining Christian Science Sentinel subscription rates), Mary Baker Eddy's once-powerful church could well be extinct within a decade. What killed it? Modern medicine. When it was founded, medicine was primitive and often detrimental to a patient's health. Just as in the case of homeopathy, harmless placebos like faith healing or homeopathic "cures" often were just as effective as real medicine. But a century later, real medicine has made enormous advances, while Christian Scientists keep dying off by refusing it. They are also very stodgy and conservative ("reading rooms" rather than internet presence), and not very active in recruiting. Will Scientology follow Christian Science into extinction? If present trends continue, it's very likely.
---Steve
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